It's a matchup between two of the NFL's top teams, but one will be without its best player when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football. Reigning league MVP Patrick Mahomes is out for the Chiefs after injuring his knee last week in a 30-6 victory against Denver, while two-time league MVP Aaron Rodgers will try to lead the Packers to their fourth straight victory. Green Bay comes in off a 42-24 home win over Oakland last week, and kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium. Green Bay is a four-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Packers odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 47.5. Before you make any Packers vs. Chiefs picks, look at the Sunday Night Football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 8 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 24-17 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 86-60 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 7, it nailed the Chiefs (-3) covering with plenty of room to spare against the Broncos and the Ravens (+3) staying within the spread against the Seahawks in a game Baltimore won outright by 14.
The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has simulated Packers vs. Chiefs 10,000 times. We can tell you it's leaning over, and it says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model knows Green Bay is built around Rodgers, who has completed 64.8 percent of his passes for 2,019 yards and 13 touchdowns in his 15th season. He has been without top receiver Davante Adams for three weeks, but he has spread the ball around, with 12 players catching passes and six scoring touchdowns through the air over that span. Marquez Valdes-Scantling leads the team with 416 yards and has two TDs on 21 receptions. Rodgers also can rely on running back Aaron Jones, who has rushed for 399 yards and eight TDs.
The Packers are plus-six in turnover margin, with cornerback Kevin King posting three of the team's eight interceptions. They also have 18 sacks, as Preston Smith is tied for fourth in the league with seven. Za'Darius Smith has six sacks, while linebacker Blake Martinez leads the league with 76 tackles.
But just because the Green Bay is on a roll doesn't mean it will cover the Chiefs vs. Packers spread on Sunday Night Football.
Kansas City's defense allows teams to move the ball, but it doesn't give up many points. In fact, the Chiefs are ninth in the league against the pass, allowing 228.6 yards, and they allow 21.4 points per game. Charvarius Ward has two interceptions and Bashaud Breeland has one, and each has four passes defended. Safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill each have an interception.
With Mahomes out, veteran Matt Moore is expected to get the start. He completed 10-of-19 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown in almost three quarters last week. He has plenty of weapons to work with, including All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, who leads the team with 38 catches for 541 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Tyreek Hill can make huge plays, and Moore took advantage when he hit him for a 57-yard touchdown in the third quarter against Denver.
So who wins Packers vs. Chiefs? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Packers vs. Chiefs spread you should be all over on Sunday Night Football, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated picks.
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October 26, 2019 at 07:25AM
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Chiefs vs. Packers odds, line: Sunday Night Football picks, predictions from model on 86-60 run - CBS Sports
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