The Packers will try to ride the hot hand of Aaron Rodgers to their fourth consecutive victory when Green Bay visits the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. This was one of the most anticipated matchups of the first half of the season, but Chiefs starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes dislocated his kneecap in last Thursday's victory against Denver and will not play on Sunday night. Rodgers, meanwhile, has overcome the loss of his top receiver to lead Green Bay to three straight wins, and he posted a perfect quarterback rating in a 42-24 rout of the Raiders last week. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium. Green Bay is a five-point favorite in the latest Packers vs. Chiefs odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 47.5. Before you lock in your Packers vs. Chiefs picks, you have to check out the NFL predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 8 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 24-17 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 86-60 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 7, it nailed the Chiefs (-3) covering with plenty of room to spare against the Broncos and the Ravens (+3) staying within the spread against the Seahawks in a game Baltimore won outright by 14.
The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has simulated Packers vs. Chiefs 10,000 times. We can tell you it's leaning over, and it says one side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model has taken into account that Rodgers is coming off one of his best performances of his career. Rodgers completed 25-of-31 passes for 429 yards with five passing touchdowns against Oakland and had a 158.3 rating, and he also ran for a score. With Davante Adams out, he completed passes to eight different players, with Marquez Valdes-Scantling going for 122 yards on just two receptions, including a 74-yard score. Running back Aaron Jones, who has rushed for 399 yards this season, carried the ball 12 times for 50 yards and also caught four passes for 33 yards and a touchdown.
Defensively, the Packers allow just 19.9 points per game and have recorded 18 sacks and 13 takeaways. Cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Kevin King, who has three picks and has knocked down eight passes, anchor a strong secondary. Linebackers Preston Smith (7 sacks) and Za'Darius Smith (6) make life tough on quarterbacks, while Blake Martinez (NFL-high 76 tackles) wreaks havoc on opposing offenses.
But just because Green Bay is on a roll doesn't mean it will cover the Chiefs vs. Packers spread on Sunday Night Football.
Kansas City's defense allows teams to move the ball, but it doesn't give up many points. In fact, the Chiefs are ninth in the league against the pass, allowing 228.6 yards, and they allow 21.4 points per game. Charvarius Ward has two interceptions and Bashaud Breeland has one, and each has four passes defended. Safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill each have an interception.
With Mahomes out, veteran Matt Moore is expected to get the start. He completed 10-of-19 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown in almost three quarters last week. He has plenty of weapons to work with, including All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, who leads the team with 38 catches for 541 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Tyreek Hill can make huge plays, and Moore took advantage when he hit him for a 57-yard touchdown in the third quarter against Denver.
So who wins Packers vs. Chiefs? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Packers vs. Chiefs spread you should be all over on Sunday Night Football, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated picks.
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October 27, 2019 at 11:45AM
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Chiefs vs. Packers odds, line: Sunday Night Football picks, predictions from proven model on 86-60 roll - CBS Sports
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