The Lions will rely on their veteran quarterback to break a three-game losing streak when Detroit hosts the New York Giants on Sunday. Matthew Stafford is still slinging it in his 11th season, surpassing 40,000 career yards last week, and he will have to take on the burden with running back Kerryon Johnson now on injured reserve. Giants rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has taken a step back since winning his first two starts, and New York also has lost three in a row, though the return of star running back Saquon Barkley has sparked some hope. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from Ford Field. Detroit is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Giants vs. Lions odds, down one from the opener, while the over-under for total points scored is 49.5. Before you make your Lions vs. Giants picks, you should see the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 8 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 24-17 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 86-60 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 7, it nailed the Chiefs (-3) covering with plenty of room to spare against the Broncos and the Ravens (+3) staying within the spread against the Seahawks in a game Baltimore won outright by 14.
The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has simulated Giants vs. Lions 10,000 times. We can tell you it's leaning under, and it says one side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model knows the Lions are sixth in the NFL in passing offense at 277.2 yards per game and average 24.8 points. Stafford has thrown for 1,751 yards and 13 touchdowns, while receiver Marvin Jones has come up big with 30 catches for 387 yards and five scores. Stafford also can count on Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola, and has a solid tight end, T.J. Hockenson. The running duties will fall to Ty Johnson (83 yards on 23 carries) and converted receiver J.D. McKissic (109 on 15).
Jones has been sacked 18 times, going down eight times in last week's loss to Arizona, and Devon Kennard (three sacks) and Christian Jones (two) can get to the quarterback. The Lions are plus-four in turnover margin, while the Giants are minus-10 (31st in NFL), turning it over 18 times. Cornerback Justin Coleman has an interception, a forced fumble and one of the team's eight fumble recoveries.
But just because Detroit has the ability to make big plays doesn't mean it will cover the Giants vs. Lions spread.
Jones flashed his potential in winning his first two starts, but there have been speed bumps recently. Still, he has passed for 1,144 yards and six touchdowns and got top target Evan Engram (34 catches, 379 yards, two TDs) back last week. The biggest return was Barkley, who ran for 72 yards and a touchdown in his first action since injuring his ankle in Week 3. He has run for 309 yards and three scores in a little more than three games.
Defensively, a unit that allows 26.7 points per game relies on the big plays. Safeties Antoine Bethea and Jabrill Peppers do it all. Bethea is the top tackler with 55, and Peppers is second at 48 and also has 3.5 tackles for loss, an interception return for a TD and a forced fumble. Linebacker Markus Golden leads the team with five sacks. This unit will play a central role as the Giants try to improve on an 8-2 record against the spread in their last 10 road games.
So who wins Giants vs. Lions? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Giants vs. Lions spread you should be all over on Sunday, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.
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October 27, 2019 at 06:52AM
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Giants vs. Lions odds, line, spread: 2019 NFL picks, predictions from advanced model on 86-60 run - CBS Sports
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