What has been the biggest upset this season? South Carolina beating No. 3 Georgia? Illinois beating No. 6 Wisconsin? Rutgers beating a spread?
The answer is still unfolding.
It’s a quarterback who completed less than 58 percent of his passes last season, and is currently on pace (79.4 percent) to shatter the all-time NCAA mark. It’s a player who has broken his storied school’s single-season record for passing touchdowns (29) around mid-October.
It’s a 200-to-1 long shot currently sporting the best odds to win the Heisman Trophy.
It’s Joe Burrow, in the midst of an astonishing transformation, leading No. 2 LSU’s remarkable offensive revolution, and putting the Tigers (7-0) in position to reach the College Football Playoff for the first time.
In LSU’s two biggest wins — a pair more impressive than any other team in the nation possesses — Burrow was brilliant. At No. 9 Texas, the senior threw for 471 yards and four touchdowns. Against No. 7 Florida, he completed 21 of 24 passes for 293 yards and three touchdowns.
In time, Auburn’s Bo Nix could make a similar leap. But the true freshman isn’t ready for Death Valley, where Auburn hasn’t won since 1999. He threw for 100 yards at Texas A&M. He completed 11 of 27 passes with three interceptions in a loss to Florida.
Nix will look just as lost at LSU (-10¹/₂), while being asked to keep pace with Baton Rouge’s unlikely superstar.
Wisconsin Badgers (+14) over OHIO STATE BUCKEYES: The Badgers have been ready for this game for two weeks. Wisconsin’s stunning loss to Illinois stripped almost all the luster off this matchup, but the Badgers — who have stayed within a touchdown of the Buckeyes in five of the past six meetings — still boast the top-scoring defense in the country, and the greatest threat to the Buckeyes this season.
Oklahoma Sooners (-23½) over KANSAS STATE WILDCATS: The Sooners appear set to win a fifth straight Big 12 title. The school could become the first ever to capture three straight Heismans. The offense is as incredible as ever. The defense is better than the group that appeared in the past two playoffs. Yet the Sooners don’t have one first-place vote — unlike the four teams ahead of them in the polls — and could conceivably be left out of the playoff, should two SEC teams advance. Somehow, this postseason format is the best the sport has ever had.
Iowa Hawkeyes (-10) over NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS: Northwestern ranks 127th nationally in points per game (12.5). The Hawkeyes’ fifth-ranked defense allows 11.6 points per game. Sometimes, it’s too easy.
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (+6½) over Penn State Nittany Lions: The Nittany Lions haven’t won by more than a touchdown in their first three meetings against top-25 defenses this season (they’re averaging fewer than 21 points) and James Franklin is 1-4 against the Spartans, who’ve had two weeks to prepare.
Texas Longhorns (-1¹/₂) over TCU HORNED FROGS: This is a trap. This is such a trap. And I don’t care. I’m stepping right in it. Even if the Longhorns looked dreadful in a two-point win over Kansas, their only losses have come in single-digit defeats against two of the five best teams in the country.
Oklahoma State Cowboys (+10½) over IOWA STATE CYCLONES: The Cowboys are at their best in this role, having covered seven straight games as an underdog.
Maryland Terrapins (+16¹/₂) over MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS: The Terrapins are welcoming back starting quarterback Josh Jackson and running back Anthony McFarland. The undefeated Gophers — whose only victory over a winning team came against Nebraska (4-3), whose four wins came against teams with a combined record of 7-20 — welcome an opponent which won last year’s meeting, 42-13.
Arkansas Razorbacks (+32) over ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE: Mac Jones will be making his first career start at quarterback — filling in for the recently injured Tua Tagovailoa — and the Crimson Tide aren’t concerned. “He can throw the crap out of the ball,” tight end Miller Forristall said. “It’s not like our playbook gets limited or we stop attacking down the field.” Then why did the nation’s second-highest scoring offense only score seven second-half points against Tennessee with Jones, who completed 6 of 11 passes for 72 yards?
CLEMSON TIGERS (-34) over Boston College Eagles: Boston College runs the ball more than all but four teams in the nation. The Tigers stop the run better than all but 11 teams in the nation. Clemson will continue its string of blowouts since the scare against North Carolina, and Trevor Lawrence’s smelling salts will arrive in the form of the 124th-ranked passing defense in the country.
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (+1) over Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Though Jim Harbaugh is 1-9 against top-10 teams, the Wolverines have gone 28-4 at home in the coach’s tenure, and have won four of their past five at home against top-15 teams.
Cal Golden Bears (+21¹/₂) over UTAH UTES: At the time of this typing, I do not know who will play quarterback for either team. So, I will blindly roll the dice with the Bears, who are 3-0 as underdogs this season, and haven’t allowed more than 24 points in a game.
Washington State Cougars (+14) over OREGON DUCKS: A sampling of what’s working against the Ducks: 1) An emotional letdown after a comeback road win at Washington, 2) A potential Pac-12 title game preview looming at USC next week, 3) Mike Leach’s fifth-ranked offense, 4) Washington State’s four straight wins in the series, 5) Pac-12 After Dark.
Best bets: Texas, Oklahoma State, Arkansas
This season (best bets): 60-63-2 (10-14)
2014-18 record: 641-612-10
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October 26, 2019 at 05:01AM
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LSU vs. Auburn prediction, line: Take the favorite and their unlikely star QB - New York Post
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