LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers will host Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat on Friday. LeBron's former team has started off the season as well as any could expect after posting just a 39-43 record last year. The Heat are coming off of a convincing road win over the Suns on Thursday, and their record sits at 6-2 on the year. The Lakers have won six-straight after their opening night loss to the Clippers. Los Angeles is getting third-year forward Kyle Kuzma (ankle) back to full health, as his minutes limit has increased in each of the past three games. The Lakers will potentially be without both Rajon Rondo (calf) and Avery Bradley (leg) on Friday though, while the Heat will be missing both Justise Winslow (concussion) and Derrick Jones Jr. (hip). Tip-off for this one is set for 10:30 p.m ET from the Staples Center. Sportsbooks list Los Angeles as an 8-point favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 216.5 in the latest Lakers vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Lakers vs. Heat picks, see the NBA predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and anyone who followed it last season saw massive returns. The model finished 300-252 on all its top-rated picks. On top-rated against-the-spread and money line NBA picks alone, the model returned a whopping $4,280.
Now it has locked in on Lakers vs. Heat. We can tell you it's leaning under, and it also has a strong against-the-spread pick, saying one side cashes in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.
The model is well aware of how dominant the Lakers have been since their opening night loss. Their +13.2 average point differential over their six-game win streak since then is the best in the league during that time frame. They've really picked it up on the defensive end, allowing just a 40.1 percent field goal percentage during their win streak. Los Angeles is up to second in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year, after ranking 15th last season.
It took a few games for LeBron and Anthony Davis to fit the pieces together, especially with Kuzma missing the beginning of the season. But the Lakers seem to be figuring things out as the season goes along, and the results have been scary so far. Will a banged-up and traveling Miami team stand a chance on the back end of a back-to-back?
Just because Los Angeles has looked unstoppable lately, doesn't mean it will cover the Lakers vs. Heat spread on Friday, however.
The model is also well aware that the Heat were among the NBA's best teams when traveling last year. Erik Spoelstra and this Miami squad prides itself on its conditioning and hard-nosed mentality, so don't expect the Heat to be as affected by the travel, back-to-back, or the matchup with James in Staples Center. No team in the entire NBA traveled better than Miami last year, who covered the spread in 63.4 percent of road games. That number jumped to 65.5 percent when playing as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the Lakers covered in just 48 percent of their games as home favorites.
And while the Lakers' second-best defensive efficiency rating is impressive, the Heat are just behind them. They rank third in defensive efficiency, while also boasting a better offensive rating and rebound rate than the Lakers. Almost half of those games came without Butler in the lineup, too. Butler missed the first three games due to the birth of his child, but Miami is 3-1 with a +8.5 average point differential since he's returned.
So who wins Heat vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Heat vs. Lakers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
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November 08, 2019 at 07:35AM
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Lakers vs. Heat odds, spread, line: 2019 NBA picks, Nov. 8 predictions from proven computer model - CBS Sports
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