LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers will put a five-game winning streak on the line against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday evening. This is the first road game for the Lakers after a four-game stretch at Staples Center, while the Thunder return home after back-to-back road losses, including one to the Lakers. Avery Bradley (right leg) will miss the game for the Lakers, while Anthony Davis (shoulder) and Alex Caruso (leg) are likely to suit up for Los Angeles. The Thunder have a relatively clean injury report, with only Andre Roberson (knee) and Hamidou Diallo (knee) expected to miss the game. Tip-off is at 8 p.m. ET at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Sportsbooks list the Lakers as 4.5-point road favorites, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 212.5 in the latest Lakers vs. Thunder odds. Before you make any Lakers vs. Thunder picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
This model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and anyone who followed it last season saw massive returns, finishing 300-252 on all its top-rated NBA picks. On top-rated NBA picks against the spread and on the money line alone, the model returned a whopping $4,280 last season. It's off to a profitable start on all-top rated picks again this season, and entered Week 5 of the 2019-20 NBA season on a 9-4 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Thunder. We can tell you that the model is leaning over, and has generated a strong against the spread pick that is hitting in almost 70 percent of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Lakers vs. Thunder.
- Lakers vs. Thunder spread: Lakers -4.5
- Lakers vs. Thunder over-under: 212.5 points
- Lakers vs. Thunder money line: Lakers -187, Thunder +161
- Lakers: Anthony Davis scored 34 points in the last match-up vs. OKC
- Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads OKC in scoring (19.4 ppg)
The model has considered that Oklahoma City has been a different team at home this season. The Thunder are 0-6 when traveling but, in front of its home crowd, Oklahoma City is 5-3 with a +5.5 net rating. The Thunder have a bevy of perimeter options, headlined by Chris Paul and Gilgeous-Alexander, but it will also be critical that the home team gets to the free throw line on a regular basis.
OKC boasts a top-five free throw rate in the NBA, where as that is a relative weakness for the Lakers, who have been willing to send their opponents to the charity stripe. In addition, the Thunder have been very good at limiting their opponents from getting to the line and that could be critical against a team that employs both James and Davis.
Just because the Thunder have a few edges doesn't mean Oklahoma City will cover the Lakers vs. Thunder spread on Friday.
The model also understand that the Lakers have been a defensive juggernaut this season and this is a favorable matchup in that regard. Los Angeles enters this game as the NBA's No. 2 overall defense and, when compared to a Thunder offense that ranks in the bottom 10, the edges are clear. Oklahoma City ranks dead last in the NBA in creating second chances on the offensive glass and, when combined with strong shooting defense from the Lakers, that is a recipe for a strong advantage.
Elsewhere, Los Angeles boasts an overall talent advantage, particularly in the frontcourt. The Lakers will have their hands full with Oklahoma City's perimeter weapons, but the Thunder may not have answers for Davis and James. The Thunder are famously shallow in the frontcourt and the team's best overall option, Danilo Gallinari, is not known for his defensive prowess. Los Angeles has a top-tier offense and they should be able to score against this Thunder group almost anywhere but the free throw line.
So who wins Thunder vs. Lakers and which side of the spread hits in almost 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Thunder vs. Lakers spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.
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November 22, 2019 at 06:31AM
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Lakers vs. Thunder odds, spread, line: 2019 NBA picks, Nov. 22 predictions from proven model on 9-4 run - CBSSports.com
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