If Bears vs. Lions on Thanksgiving sounds familiar, that's because the NFC North rivals also played in the early game on the holiday last year. Chicago was without starting quarterback Mitchell Trubisky for that one, a 23-16 Bears victory, but it will likely be Detroit sans its starting signal-caller on Thursday. Kickoff is at 12:30 p.m. ET from Ford Field in Detroit. The Bears (5-6) are trying to keep their slim playoff hopes alive and get to .500 for the first time since they were 3-3. Chicago is a three-point favorite in the latest Lions vs. Bears odds, while the over-under for total points is 39. The favorite is 4-0-1 against the spread in the past five meetings. Before making any Bears vs. Lions picks of your own, be sure to see the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 13 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 31-20 run that dates back to last season.
It's also on an incredible 93-63 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model has also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up and consistently beaten NFL odds.
Now, the model has set its sights on Bears vs. Lions. We can tell you that the model is leaning under, and it's also generated an against the spread pick that's hitting in over 50 percent of simulations. Go to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the betting lines and trends for Bears vs. Lions:
- Lions vs. Bears spread: Chicago -3
- Lions vs. Bears over-under: 39 points
- Lions vs. Bears moneyline: Chicago -150, Detroit +130
- CHI: Bears are 7-1 in their past eight NFC North games
- DET: Lions have won five of last six at home in series
The model knows that the Bears likely won't have to face Lions starting quarterback and former No. 1 overall pick Matthew Stafford. He has missed the past three games with fractured bones in his back and may not play again this season. Stafford is 10-8 in his career as a starter against the Bears, completing 64 percent of his passes for 4,741 yards and 28 touchdowns.
Jeff Driskel, a 2016 sixth-round pick by the San Francisco 49ers, would get the call again, although he might not be close to 100 percent since he's dealing with a hamstring injury. Driskel has seen action in 12 games in his brief career and hasn't won any of them. The Bears have been a strong bet of late against NFC North foes, covering nine of their last 10 games.
But just because Chicago is favored doesn't mean it will cover the Lions vs. Bears spread on Thursday.
Detroit has generally played significantly better at home this season, with two of its three wins coming at Ford Field. The Lions also have unearthed a potential gem in the backfield in former Alabama star Bo Scarbrough. Detroit has been hit hard by injuries and Scarbrough has led the team in rushing the past two games. The former seventh-round pick of the Cowboys is averaging a very solid 4.8 yards per carry.
The Lions' defensive front could have a big day against a Chicago offensive line that has struggled this season and will be without right tackle Bobby Massie (ankle). Detroit largely outplayed the Bears at Soldier Field in Week 10, outgaining Chicago 357-226, but lost 20-13 in Driskel's first start in place of Stafford. The Bears have covered just one of their past seven games overall.
So who wins Lions vs. Bears on Thanksgiving Day? And which side of the spread cashes in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Bears vs. Lions spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the computer model on a 93-63 roll on NFL picks.
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November 26, 2019 at 06:22AM
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Lions vs. Bears odds, line: 2019 Thanksgiving Day NFL picks, predictions from model on 93-63 roll - CBS Sports
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