The Falcons will go for the sweep when Atlanta hosts the New Orleans Saints on Thursday night in a battle of NFC South rivals. It's the final game of the 2019 Thanksgiving Day NFL schedule. The Falcons have won three games this season, but beat New Orleans decisively in Week 10, sacking Drew Brees six times in a 26-9 victory. It was the first time since 2006 that a Brees-led offense failed to score a touchdown at home. The Falcons followed that up with six more sacks and four interceptions against the Panthers before the Bucs gave them a reality check in a 35-22 Tampa Bay victory last Sunday. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. New Orleans is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Saints vs. Falcons odds, while the over-under is 48.5. Before you make your Falcons vs. Saints picks, scope out the latest 2019 Thanksgiving Day NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 13 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 31-20 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 93-63 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
Now, the model has set its sights on Saints vs. Falcons. We can tell you that the model is leaning over, and has generated a strong against the spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. Head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the betting lines and trends for Saints vs. Falcons:
- Saints vs. Falcons spread: New Orleans -6.5
- Saints vs. Falcons over-under: 48.5
- Saints vs. Falcons money line: New Orleans -310, Atlanta +250
- NO: WR Michael Thomas has at least 89 yards in 10 of 11 games.
- ATL: WR Calvin Ridley has 14 catches for 228 yards the past two games.
The model has taken into account that the Saints are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight conference games, and Brees hasn't missed a beat since his return from thumb surgery. Having a top receiver like Thomas, who leads the NFL in both receptions (124) and yards (1,242) certainly helps. Brees can also rely on Alvin Kamara, who's racked up 526 rushing yards and 421 receiving yards this season.
The Saints are also 24-8 against the spread in their last 32 road games, and they'll want to silence the Atlanta crowd quickly. The defense is stout against the run, so it will likely to fall on Matt Ryan to beat them. Ryan has been sacked 29 times, so Cameron Jordan (9.5 sacks) should be able to rattle him. Linebacker Demario Davis has been disruptive all season, leading the Saints with 80 tackles, breaking up nine passes and adding an interception and two sacks.
New Orleans has been tough to beat this season, but that doesn't mean it will cover the Falcons vs. Saints spread on Thanksgiving.
The Falcons are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Bucs had 446, and Atlanta had no sacks, so the Falcons will need to get back to the game plan they used to beat New Orleans. Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett had 2.5 of his 5.5 sacks in the last meeting, and end Vic Beasley had 1.5. De'Vondre Campbell had his only sack in that game, but he has made plenty of plays this season, picking off two passes, forcing two fumbles and leading the team with 96 tackles. Fellow linebacker Deion Jones has 82 tackles.
The Falcons are 4-0 against the spread against teams with a winning record. The running game has struggled with Devonta Freeman (foot) out, but Freeman is expected back on Thursday night. Quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown for 2,934 yards and 18 touchdowns despite facing pressure and being sacked 29 times. He may need to rely more on receiver Calvin Ridley on Thursday if Julio Jones (questionable) is slowed by a shoulder injury he suffered Sunday. Ridley has 699 yards on 50 catches, while Russell Gage had eight of his 25 receptions in Sunday's loss.
So who wins Saints vs. Falcons during the 2019 NFL Thanksgiving Day schedule? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Saints vs. Falcons spread you should be all over on Thursday, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated picks.
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November 28, 2019 at 05:40AM
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Saints vs. Falcons odds, line: 2019 Thanksgiving Day NFL picks, predictions from advanced model on 93-63 roll - CBS Sports
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