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Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Texans vs. Colts odds, line: Thursday Night Football picks, predictions from model on 92-63 run - CBS Sports

It's a battle for the top spot in the AFC South standings when the Indianapolis Colts head to Houston to take on the Texans on Thursday Night Football. Both teams are 6-4, but the Colts come in off a 33-13 win over Jacksonville on Sunday, while the Texans were beaten in all phases in a 41-7 loss to the Ravens. The Colts got quarterback Jacoby Brissett back from injury, but top rusher Marlon Mack left the game with a broken hand and is out indefinitely. Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson was in the MVP conversation before the Ravens' Lamar Jackson took over the front-runner spot with his performance last Sunday. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium. Houston is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Texans vs. Colts odds, while the over-under is 45.5. Before you make your Colts vs. Texans picks, you should see the latest NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 12 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 30-20 run that dates back to last season. 

It's also on an incredible 92-63 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season, The model has ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has broken down Colts vs. Texans. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it's also generated an against-the-spread pick that is hitting in more than 50 percent of simulations. Head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the NFL betting lines and trends for Colts vs. Texans:

  • Texans vs. Colts spread: Houston -3.5
  • Texans vs. Colts over-under: 45.5
  • Texans vs. Colts money line: Houston -192, Indianapolis +164
  • Texans: RB Carlos Hyde is averaging 8.0 ypc the past two games.
  • Colts: QB Jacoby Brissett has seven TDs and no INTs in four starts against Houston.

The model knows the Texans are 16-7-1 against the spread in their last 24 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game, and Watson leads an offense that ranks seventh in the league in total yards, averaging 380.2. Watson is completing 69.5 percent of his passes for 2,601 yards and 18 touchdowns and has 291 yards and five more scores on the ground. Running back Carlos Hyde gives the Texans balance, rushing for 769 yards (11th in the NFL).

The strength of Houston's defense is its linebackers. Zach Cunningham (79) and Benardrick McKinney (68) are its top tacklers, while Whitney Mercilus (5.5 sacks) and Brennan Scarlett (4.5) the top pass rushers with J.J. Watt (pectoral) out for the season. Houston is listed at 40-1 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy according to the latest 2020 Super Bowl odds.

But just because Houston has a high-powered offense doesn't mean it will cover the Texans vs. Colts spread on Thursday Night Football. 

Brissett settled back in after missing time with a knee injury, but it was the running game that dominated against the Jaguars as the Colts improved to 12-5-1 against the spread in their last 18 games in November. Mack contributed 109 yards before leaving Sunday's game, but Jonathan Williams stepped in to rush for a career-high 116 yards on 13 carries as Indy amassed 264 yards on the ground. Running back Nyheim Hines plays a central role in the passing game and is second on the team with 30 receptions for 224 yards.

The Colts are 6-0 against the spread in their last six conference games and 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between the teams in Houston. Indianapolis' defense allows 96.8 yards per game on the ground and will try to make the Texans one-dimensional. The secondary is banged up, but the Colts should be able to get to Watson. They have 25 sacks this season, led by Justin Houston with eight, and Watson has been sacked 31 times. 

So who wins Colts vs. Texans on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread can you bank on in more than 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Colts vs. Texans spread you should be all over on Thursday, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.

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November 19, 2019 at 07:23AM
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Texans vs. Colts odds, line: Thursday Night Football picks, predictions from model on 92-63 run - CBS Sports
"line" - Google News
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