Jamal Murray and the Denver Nuggets host Brandon Ingram and the New Orleans Pelicans in the final game on the 2019 Christmas Day NBA schedule. Both teams are mostly healthy entering Wednesday's action. The Nuggets have a clean injury report, while New Orleans' only missing player is Zion Williamson (knee). The No. 1 pick hasn't played a game this season; the more notable injury news is that the rest of the Pelicans are finally all healthy at once. Playing through injury has been the story of the season for New Orleans, who could be well on its way to another lottery pick this summer.
Tip-off for this one is set for 10:30 p.m ET from the Pepsi Center. Sportsbooks list the Nuggets as 9.5-point favorites, while the over-under for total points is 219.5 in the latest Pelicans vs Nuggets odds. Before you make any Nuggets vs. Pelicans picks or NBA predictions, you'll want to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned over $1,400 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 9 on a blistering 20-8 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Nuggets vs. Pelicans on the 2019 Christmas Day NBA schedule. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Pelicans vs. Nuggets:
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans spread: Nuggets -9.5
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans over-under: 219.5 points
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans money line: Denver -513, New Orleans +382
- NOP: The Pelicans have the NBA's third-worst road ATS cover rate (33%).
- DEN: The Nuggets are just 2-4-1 ATS in the past seven home games.
Why the Nuggets can cover
The model is well aware of how much Denver benefits from home-court advantage. Dating back to the start of last season, Denver has a 47-10 record when playing in the Mile High City. No team in the NBA has defended its home court at a higher rate than the Nuggets during that time. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are just 4-12 when playing on the road this season. Traveling to Denver to take on the team with the second-best record in the Western Conference in the altitude is a tall task, and it will likely come down to New Orleans' ability -- or lack thereof -- to stop First-Team All NBA Center Nikola Jokic.
After a slow start to the season, Jokic has turned it on as of late. In six games over the past two weeks -- all wins -- the Joker has averaged 22 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists, while also knocking down 52 percent of his 3-point attempts. He should have no problem leading the Nuggets to their eighth-straight win against a Pelicans team that's struggled against opposing bigs all season.
Why the Pelicans can cover
The model is well aware that while New Orleans' season-long numbers are rough, they have played extended stretches without the services of Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Derrick Favors, and no player has been immune to the injury bug. Holiday has missed two games and is still the team leader in games and minutes played. It has just been that kind of a year for the Pelicans, a team that entered the season with optimism of securing a playoff spot.
The team is now healthy for the first time all season, and they're playing better. After a brutal 13-game losing streak starting in late November, New Orleans has won two out of three games on the most recent road trip. The veteran presence of Favors has helped tremendously, as the big man has a double-double in back-to-back games after being on a strict minutes limit prior to that. He will be much needed in a matchup against Jokic.
How to make Nuggets vs. Pelicans picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations.
So who wins Nuggets vs. Pelicans? And which side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Pelicans vs. Nuggets spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
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December 25, 2019 at 05:30PM
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Nuggets vs. Pelicans odds, line: 2019 Christmas Day NBA picks, predictions from proven model on 20-8 run - CBS Sports
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