It's an AFC East showdown when the Buffalo Bills head to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots on Saturday. The Patriots lead the division at 11-3, but the 10-4 Bills could earn a chance to win the East by avenging a 16-10 loss in Week 4. Both teams are defined by defense, with the Patriots boasting the NFL's top unit and the Bills not far behind. Tom Brady is still finding a way to win, while second-year pro Josh Allen is doing the same with Buffalo. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium. New England is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 36.5. Before making any Bills vs. Patriots picks of your own, go see the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 16 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 33-22 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 95-65 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has broken down Patriots vs. Bills. We can tell you it's leaning under and it's also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the betting lines and trends for Bills vs. Patriots:
- Patriots vs. Bills spread: New England -6.5
- Patriots vs. Bills over-under: 36.5
- Patriots vs. Bills money line: New England -281, Buffalo +225
- NE: QB Tom Brady is 31-3 against Buffalo
- BUF: RB Devin Singletary has rushed for at least 75 yards in five of the last seven games.
The model knows the Patriots have covered the spread in their last four Saturday games and have the league's top defense in scoring (12.9) and total yards per game (268.4). New England has 36 takeaways and an astonishing plus-24 turnover margin. Cornerback Stephon Gilmore has six interceptions, returning two for touchdowns, while safety Devin McCourty has five. Jamie Collins leads the unit with 72 tackles and has six sacks, three interceptions and three forced fumbles.
New England has the pedigree, but that doesn't mean it will cover the Patriots vs. Bills spread on Saturday.
The model also knows Bills are 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between the teams in Foxborough, and Buffalo is second in the league in scoring defense (15.9 points per game) and third in total yards (291.9). Buffalo has forced 21 turnovers, and the best player on the defense is shutdown corner Tre'Davious White, who has six interceptions and 17 pass breakups. The unit also has 42 sacks, led by defensive tackle Jordan Phillips' 9.5.
Allen has brought stability to the offense for the Bills, who are 6-0-1 against the spread on the road this season. He has thrown for 2,876 yards and 18 touchdowns and has a big-time target in John Brown, who has 1,007 yards and five TDs on 71 catches
So who wins Bills vs. Patriots? And which side of the spread can you bank on in more than 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Bills vs. Patriots spread you should be all over on Saturday, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.
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December 19, 2019 at 08:11AM
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Patriots vs. Bills odds, line, spread: 2019 NFL picks, Week 16 predictions from model on 95-65 roll - CBS Sports
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