The Houston Texans will seek the first victory in the AFC divisional round in franchise history when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 3:05 p.m. ET. Houston (11-6) improved to 4-2 in wild-card games after defeating Buffalo in overtime last Saturday, but has lost all three of its previous divisional-round appearances. The Texans, who are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as road underdogs, were blanked at home by the Chiefs in the wild-card round following the 2015 season in the only other playoff meeting between the teams.
Kansas City (12-4) enters Sunday's contest in the 2020 NFL Playoffs riding a six-game winning streak. Kansas City is a 9.5-point favorite in the current Chiefs vs. Texans odds after the spread opened at 7.5, while the over-under for total points scored is 51. Before locking in any Texans vs. Chiefs picks or NFL predictions, make sure you see what SportsLine's proven projection model has to say.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four-plus years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering the divisional round of the 2020 NFL playoffs on a strong 34-22 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 96-65 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Texans. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL lines and trends for Texans vs. Chiefs:
- Chiefs vs. Texans spread: Kansas City -9.5
- Chiefs vs. Texans over-under: 51 points
- Chiefs vs. Texans money line: Kansas City -446, Houston +346
- HOU: QB Deshaun Watson led the team with seven rushing touchdowns
- KC: Chiefs have allowed an average of 11.5 points during their winning streak
Why the Chiefs can cover
The model knows that the Chiefs do the majority of their damage through the air, as they ranked fifth in the NFL in passing offense (281.1 yards). Patrick Mahomes threw for over 4,000 yards (4,031) for the second straight season and finished with 26 touchdown passes against only five interceptions.
Travis Kelce was fourth in the NFL with 1,229 receiving yards, making him the first tight end in league history to reach the 1,000-yard plateau in four consecutive seasons and record 1,200 in back-to-back campaigns. The 30-year-old out of Cincinnati made his 500th career catch in Week 16 to become the fastest at his position to hit that mark. Kelce had at least 60 receiving yards in 13 games this season, tying him with New Orleans wideout Michael Thomas for most in the league.
Wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who missed four games early in the season with a shoulder injury, finished with 860 yards and seven touchdown catches, but found the end zone in just one of his final six contests.
Why the Texans can cover
The Texans were out of sync against the Bills in the first half last weekend, gaining only 81 total yards, a number that could be attributed to the fact that regulars like quarterback Deshaun Watson and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins sat out the regular-season finale. But Houston got back on track after halftime, amassing 279 yards and all 22 of its points.
Despite the lack of first-half production, Watson was on his game against Buffalo and completed 20-of-25 passes for 247 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for a team-high, and season-best, 55 yards and a score. The 24-year-old Clemson product led the Texans with seven rushing TDs during the regular season and was second on the team with 413 yards on the ground.
How to make Chiefs vs. Texans picks
We can tell you that the model is leaning under, and it also has generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Texans vs. Chiefs in the 2020 NFL Playoffs? And which side of the spread is hitting over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Texans spread to jump on Sunday, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
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January 11, 2020 at 07:41AM
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Chiefs vs. Texans odds, line: NFL Playoff picks, bracket predictions from proven simulation on 96-65 roll - CBS Sports
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