The Kansas City Chiefs look to improve their disappointing postseason record when they host the Houston Texans in an AFC divisional-round game on Sunday. Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 3:05 p.m. ET. Kansas City (12-4) has been successful during the regular season, reaching double-digit victories the last five years. However, the Chiefs, who are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six outings, have won only two of their 14 playoff contests since defeating the Houston Oilers in the divisional round following the 1993 season.
The Texans (11-6) will attempt to even their all-time playoff record at 5-5 after defeating Buffalo in overtime during wild-card weekend. Kansas City is a 9.5-point favorite in the current Chiefs vs. Texans odds after the spread opened at 7.5, while the over-under for total points scored is 51, up from an open of 49. Before locking in any Texans vs. Chiefs picks or NFL predictions, make sure you see what SportsLine's proven projection model has to say.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four-plus years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering the divisional round of the 2020 NFL playoffs on a strong 34-22 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 96-65 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Texans. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL lines and trends for Texans vs. Chiefs:
- Chiefs vs. Texans spread: Kansas City -9.5
- Chiefs vs. Texans over-under: 51 points
- Chiefs vs. Texans money line: Kansas City -446, Houston +346
- HOU: QB Deshaun Watson led the team with seven rushing touchdowns
- KC: Chiefs have allowed an average of 11.5 points during their winning streak
Why the Chiefs can cover
The model knows the Chiefs ranked eighth in the league in pass defense during the regular season with an average of 221.4 yards allowed. They were tied for fifth with 16 interceptions and registered 45 sacks to finish just one behind Washington for 10th overall.
Safety Tyrann Mathieu has been a major factor in Kansas City's success against the pass, recording one-quarter of the team's interceptions. The 27-year-old from LSU, who spent last season with the Texans, was named the AFC Defensive Player of the Month for December after notching 25 tackles, two picks and one sack in five contests. The Chiefs will be without one of their top pass defenders in Juan Thornhill, however, as the rookie safety suffered a torn ACL in the regular-season finale.
Kansas City's pass rush features defensive tackle Chris Jones (team-high nine sacks) and ends Frank Clark (seven sacks in last eight games) and Terrell Suggs, who is eighth on the NFL's all-time list with 139 career sacks.
Why the Texans can cover
The Texans were out of sync against the Bills in the first half last weekend, gaining only 81 total yards, a number that could be attributed to the fact that regulars like quarterback Deshaun Watson and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins sat out the regular-season finale. But Houston got back on track after halftime, amassing 279 yards and all 22 of its points.
Despite the lack of first-half production, Watson was on his game against Buffalo and completed 20-of-25 passes for 247 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for a team-high, and season-best, 55 yards and a score. The 24-year-old Clemson product led the Texans with seven rushing TDs during the regular season and was second on the team with 413 yards on the ground.
How to make Chiefs vs. Texans picks
We can tell you that the model is leaning under, and it also has generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Texans vs. Chiefs in the 2020 NFL Playoffs? And which side of the spread is hitting over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Texans spread to jump on Sunday, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
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January 12, 2020 at 07:25AM
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Chiefs vs. Texans odds, line: NFL Playoff picks, bracket predictions from top simulation on 96-65 roll - CBS Sports
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