On the second night of a back-to-back, the Utah Jazz (32-15) will aim to steal a road win over the Denver Nuggets (32-15) in a battle of top Western Conference contenders. The home team will be short-handed in this matchup, with Jamal Murray (ankle), Paul Millsap (knee) and Mason Plumlee (foot) unavailable to play for Denver. On the Utah side, there is less clarity on the injury front because of the back-to-back, though the Jazz were at full strength in what became a loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday evening.
Tip-off is at 10:30 p.m. ET at Pepsi Center. Sportsbooks list the Nuggets as 1.5-point home favorites, holding steady from the opener, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 215.5 in the latest Jazz vs. Nuggets odds. Before making any Nuggets vs. Jazz picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned almost $3,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 15 on a blistering 33-16 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Nuggets vs. Jazz. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Jazz vs. Nuggets:
- Jazz vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -1.5
- Jazz vs. Nuggets over-under: 215.5 points
- Jazz vs. Nuggets money line: Nuggets -122, Jazz +102
- UTAH: The Jazz are 13-4-1 against the spread in the last 18 games
- DEN: The Nuggets are 3-2 against the spread in the last five games
Why the Jazz can cover
The model has considered that the Jazz have cooled off a bit after a torrid stretch, but Utah is still playing very good basketball. Quin Snyder's team relies on a strong defense, headlined by the presence of perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert.
The Jazz rank in the top six of the NBA in defensive rebounding, shooting efficiency allowed and keeping opponents off the free- throw line. On the offensive side, Utah boasts a strong shot profile, ranking second in the league in shooting efficiency, and the Jazz should also be able to create advantageous situations with quality looks and free-throw attempts.
Why the Nuggets can cover
Even so, Utah isn't a lock to cover the Nuggets vs. Jazz spread. The model also realizes that the Nuggets will be deploying an unusual rotation without three key cogs. Still, Denver has Nikola Jokic to rely on, with the All-Star center averaging 19.8 points, 10.1 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game this season. The Nuggets are an above-average squad on both ends of the floor, including a No. 2 overall mark in offensive rebounding.
While Denver isn't quite as dominant on the defensive glass, that is still an edge to exploit, with Utah rarely generating second-chance opportunities with offensive rebounding. The Nuggets should also be able to create havoc defensively, with the Jazz ranking as a below-average team in ball security this season.
How to make Nuggets vs. Jazz picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with Jokic projected to exceed his season-long scoring average. Mike Conley is also projected to score more than his average for the Jazz. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations.
So who wins Jazz vs. Nuggets and which side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Jazz spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
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January 30, 2020 at 06:14AM
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Nuggets vs. Jazz odds, line: 2020 NBA picks, Jan. 30 predictions from projection model on 33-16 run - CBS Sports
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