In a little over a week, the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will face off in Super Bowl LIV. If recent history is an accurate indication, fans should be treated to a thrilling contest.
Three of the last five Super Bowls have been decided by one score, one was won in overtime, and last year's game was tied at three heading into the fourth quarter.
Stylistically, this should be an intriguing and fun contest. The Chiefs rely on Patrick Mahomes, a high-flying passing attack and an opportunistic pass defense, while the 49ers run first, run often and smother with the pass rush.
The contrasting styles make this an unpredictable matchup, which is reflected in the early betting line.
Here, we'll dig into the latest line and over/under from Caesars and examine some of the individual matchups that could determine the outcome.
Super Bowl LIV
When: Sunday, February 2 at 6:30 p.m. ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida
TV and Live Stream: Fox, Fox Sports Go
Line, O/U: KC -1, 54.5
Mahomes versus the 49ers Pass Rush
Mahomes and Chiefs head coach Andy Reid will have to figure out how to counter San Francisco's ferocious pass rush if they hope to lean on the pass at all. The 49ers are relentless when they sense the opportunity to attack the quarterback.
The mobility of the 24-year-old will be key here. Though the Chiefs signal-caller isn't as much of a scramble as, say, Lamar Jackson, he is extremely shifty on the move and can pick up yards with his legs. He actually led Kansas City in rushing in each of the past two playoff games, running for 53 yards in each.
More importantly, Mahomes will need to keep plays alive, which means outrunning the likes of Nick Bosa and Dee Ford behind the line of scrimmage. If he can buy time in the pocket, he can get the ball to Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Co; if he can't, the Chiefs will have to rely more heavily on their backfield, which isn't the strength of the offense.
In short, Mahomes' ability to avoid pressure could mirror Kansas City's ability to win this game.
The 49ers Defense versus Travis Kelce
If the 49ers aren't able to shut down Mahomes before he releases the ball, their next challenge will be trying to contain Kelce. Though the Chiefs have plenty of weapons, the tight end is the biggest mismatch on the roster and one of the most difficult players to contain in the entire league.
The 30-year-old has 13 catches for 164 yards and three touchdowns in the postseason.
For the 49ers, he will present a unique challenge. San Francisco has been terrific against the pass because it forces the ball out early, while defensive backs such as Richard Sherman can lock down the perimeter. But Kelce can attack the middle of the field with short and intermediate routes, providing Mahomes with a quick outlet and then doing damage after the catch.
This will place a lot of pressure on San Francisco's linebackers. It won't be surprising to see the 49ers double Kelce with a nickel back or safety throughout the game.
The Chiefs Run Defense versus Mostert and Co.
One of the most important matchups in the game will be the Chiefs defense against 49ers running backs Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman.
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan likes to use a multi-faceted rushing attack to wear down defenses and impose a physical dominance.
Make no mistake, though, San Francisco is not a grind-it-out team. The 49ers attack is up-tempo and designed to score points in bunches—it averaged 29.9 points in the regular season, second-most in the NFL. This, along with Mahomes' passing prowess, is why the over/under is on the high end and may not be high enough.
Kansas City did a good job of containing Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry last week, but it ranked just 26th in run defense during the regular season.
If the Chiefs can slow the run game and force the 49ers to rely more on quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, it will let loose an aggressive Kansas City pass rush. That rush should have a fully healthy Chris Jones; he was banged-up in the AFC title game.
"I think he feels pretty good," Reid said of Jones, per ESPN's Adam Teicher.
If the Chiefs cannot contain San Francisco's rushing attack, this could turn into a good old-fashioned shootout.
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January 24, 2020 at 04:01AM
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Super Bowl 2020: Vegas Betting Odds, Updated Money Line for 49ers vs. Chiefs - Bleacher Report
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