Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks (43-7) will host Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers (31-20) on Thursday. The Sixers will again be without Josh Richardson (hamstring), who will remain sidelined for a sixth consecutive game. Milwaukee has a completely clean injury report.
Tip-off for this one is set for 8:00 p.m ET from the Fiserv Forum. Sportsbooks list Milwaukee as an 8.5-point home favorite, while the over-under for total points is 227 in the latest Sixers vs. Bucks odds. Before making any Bucks vs. 76ers picks or NBA predictions, you'll want to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned over $3,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 16 on a blistering 34-18 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Sixers. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for 76ers vs. Bucks:
- Bucks vs. Sixers spread: Bucks -8.5
- Bucks vs. Sixers over-under: 227 points
- Bucks vs. Sixers money line: Milwaukee -433, Philadelphia +344
- PHI: The 76ers have the NBA's worst road ATS record.
- MIL: The Bucks are just 3-5 ATS at home in 2020.
Why the Bucks can cover
The model is well aware that the Bucks have been the far superior team this season. The Bucks rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency and second in offensive efficiency, and their +12.4 point differential is way up on Philly's +2.3 mark. The Bucks are also the only team in the NBA with a better rebounding rate than the 76ers, as they have the edge in almost any statistical category available.
The Bucks were embarrassed by the 76ers in Philadelphia on Christmas Day, but this is a much different matchup with the game taking place in Milwaukee. The Bucks have a 23-3 record and +13.3 point differential when playing at home, but more importantly, Philadelphia has looked like a different team when playing away from the Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers are 22-2 with a +10.2 point differential at home, but just 9-18 with a -4.7 point differential on the road. Their 28 percent cover rate ATS when playing on the road is the worst mark in the NBA by a wide margin.
Why the 76ers can cover
Despite its dominance, Milwaukee isn't a lock to cover the Bucks vs. Sixers spread. The model is also well aware that Philadelphia's roster is one of the few in the NBA that is well-equipped to deal with Giannis and the Bucks. Between Embiid and Al Horford, the Sixers probably have the best combination of individual defenders to slow Antetokounmpo down.
That was in full effect on Christmas Day, when the Sixers held Giannis to 8-27 shooting. The combination of Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, and Matisse Thybulle gives Brett Brown several different looks to throw at Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe defensively.
Offensively, Philadelphia has played through Embiid in this matchup in the past. Milwaukee's length and rim protection limits what Simmons can do offensively, but Embiid has had no problem carrying the load. In four meetings with the Bucks since the start of last season, Embiid has averaged 34 points, 15 rebounds, and seven assists.
How to make Bucks vs. Sixers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total. In fact, the model is projecting Embiid, Harris, and Brook Lopez all to exceed their season scoring averages. It also has generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in 60 percent of simulations.
So who wins 76ers vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread cashes 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bucks vs. Sixers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
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February 06, 2020 at 08:36AM
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Bucks vs. Sixers odds, line: 2020 NBA picks, Feb. 6 predictions from advanced computer on 34-18 run - CBS Sports
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