James Harden and the Houston Rockets will host the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday. The Rockets enter Wednesday's contest at 4-3, while the Warriors sit at just 2-5. This is not the Warriors team we have grown accustomed to over the years. With Kevin Durant moved on to Brooklyn and Klay Thompson out, we knew it might be a tough transition for the new-look Warriors. But then they lost Steph Curry (hand) and Draymond Green (finger) to extended absences. To top it off, Golden State might be without offseason acquisition D'Angelo Russell on Wednesday. Russell has missed the past two games with an ankle injury, and he's listed as questionable. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m ET from the Toyota Center. Sportsbooks list the Rockets as 16.5-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 232.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Rockets odds. Before you make any Rockets vs. Warriors picks, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and anyone who followed it last season saw massive returns. The model finished 300-252 on all its top-rated picks. On top-rated against-the-spread and money line NBA picks alone, the model returned a whopping $4,280.
Now, it has locked in on Warriors vs. Rockets. We can tell you it's leaning under, and it also has an extremely strong against the spread pick, saying one side cashes in nearly 70 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.
The model is well aware of how ill equipped the Warriors are to deal with Harden and Russell Westbrook. Golden State is starting a pair of rookies in the backcourt, and they rank dead last in defensive efficiency. Not only are their perimeter defenders a problem, the Warriors have little rim protection. They've allowed the second-highest opponent field goal percentage from within five feet of the rim, which is not a recipe for success against Westbrook and Clint Capela. They've also allowed the third-most made threes and the fifth-highest three-point percentage, which could lead to problems against a Houston team that has made more three-pointers than any team in the NBA since the start of last season.
But just because Golden State doesn't match up well on paper doesn't mean it will cover the massive Rockets vs. Warriors spread on Wednesday.
The model is also well aware that the game isn't played on paper. A team has to be locked in to cover a 16.5-point spread, and as we saw in Golden State's last game, opponents will sometimes take the Warriors lightly to their own detriment. The Warriors not only covered a 12-point spread, but they actually beat the Trail Blazers, a team that sets up similarly to the Rockets on paper.
Plus, Houston has not been locked in to start the season, ranking second-to-last in defensive efficiency, allowing the most made three-pointers to opponents, and covering the spread in just one of seven games. This is the third game in four days for the Rockets, and there's a chance that they don't bring the intensity needed to put this young Warriors team away early.
So who wins Warriors vs. Rockets? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Warriors vs. Rockets spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
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November 06, 2019 at 08:25AM
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Rockets vs. Warriors odds, line: 2019 NBA picks, Nov. 6 predictions from advanced computer model - CBS Sports
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