In what likely will be the most-watched and most-wagered game on Sunday's NFL schedule, the Kansas City Chiefs eye payback for their loss in last season's AFC Championship Game when they visit the New England Patriots. Kickoff is at 4:25 p.m. ET. New England beat Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC title game back in January. The Chiefs had a late interception of Tom Brady that would have clinched the win in regulation wiped out due to an offsides call on Dee Ford. It's possible these teams play again in January, with New England atop the AFC East and Kansas City all but having clinched another AFC West title. The underdog has covered four of the past five in this series. New England is a three-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Chiefs odds, while the over-under is 48.5. Before making any Chiefs vs. Patriots picks of your own, be sure to see the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 14 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 32-21 run that dates back to last season.
It's also on an incredible 94-64 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Patriots. We can tell you the model is leaning under the total, and it says one side of the spread has all the value. Go to SportsLine now to see it. Here are the betting lines and trends for Chiefs vs. Patriots:
- Patriots vs. Chiefs spread: New England -3
- Patriots vs. Chiefs over-under: 48.5 points
- Patriots vs. Chiefs money line: New England -160, Kansas City +140
- KC: Chiefs have been better on road (5-1) than at home (3-3) this year
- NE: Since 2001, Pats are NFL-best 36-4 at Gillette Stadium in December
The model knows that New England is on a 21-game home winning streak and has covered the spread in 16 of those games. One of those straight-up victories was in Week 6 last year when the Patriots beat the Chiefs, 43-40, on a Stephen Gostkowski 28-yard field goal as time expired. New England dominated the first half, leading 24-9 at intermission, but had to rally in the fourth quarter. Tom Brady threw for 340 yards and a touchdown and the Patriots' ground game went off for 173 yards and three scores.
Run defense was an issue for Kansas City last season and is again in 2019, with the Chiefs allowing 132.1 yards per game on the ground. That could mean a dose of Sony Michel on Sunday; he had 106 yards and two scores on 24 carries in the 2018 regular-season meeting and 113 yards and two more touchdowns in the AFC title game at Arrowhead.
But just because New England is favored doesn't mean it will cover the Patriots vs. Chiefs spread on Sunday.
The Chiefs have been a strong road bet the last two-plus seasons, covering 10 of their last 15 away from home and seven of their previous 10 away games against teams with a winning home record. While Patrick Mahomes is 0-2 versus New England in his career including playoffs, he has put up sky-high numbers against the Patriots' defense. The reigning NFL MVP had 352 yards passing and four touchdowns in the 2018 regular-season loss and 295 yards and three touchdowns in the AFC Championship Game defeat.
While Kansas City's defense hasn't been strong against the run this year, it has come up with several big plays. The free-agent addition of safety Tyrann Mathieu has played a major role. "The Honey Badger" has interceptions in back-to-back games and the Chiefs have held the Chargers and Raiders to a combined 26 points in consecutive wins.
So who wins Chiefs vs. Patriots? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Patriots spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the computer model on a 94-64 run on NFL picks.
"line" - Google News
December 06, 2019 at 06:58AM
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Patriots vs. Chiefs odds, spread, line: 2019 NFL picks, predictions from model on 94-64 roll - CBS Sports
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