The Houston Texans will try to knock off their biggest nemesis when they host Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in a key Sunday Night Football matchup at NRG Stadium in Houston. The Texans (7-4) have lost eight straight games to New England, including five contests in the last four seasons. Houston leads the AFC South by one game over Indianapolis and Tennessee and occupy the No. 3 spot in the AFC playoff race. The Texans are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games. Meanwhile, the Patriots (10-1) have ridden a stout defense to the best record in the AFC. They have won consecutive games against the Eagles and Cowboys. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. New England is a three-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Texans odds, and the over-under for total points scored is 46.5. Before you make any Texans vs. Patriots picks, see the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 13 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 31-20 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 93-63 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model has also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Texans vs. Patriots. We can tell you that the model is leaning under, and it's also generated an against the spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the betting lines and trends for Texans vs. Patriots:
- Patriots vs. Texans spread: New England -3
- Patriots vs. Texans over-under: 46.5 points
- Patriots vs. Texans money line: New England -170, Houston +155
- NE: Cornerback Stephon Gilmore has not allowed a catch in back-to-back games
- HOU: Receiver DeAndre Hopkins is No. 2 in the NFL in receptions (81)
The model knows that New England's defense is one of the best in the NFL. The unit is giving up a measly 10.6 points per game, which is the fewest in the league, and ranks second in yards per game allowed (256.4). The Patriots also lead the NFL with 29 takeaways, having recorded 20 interceptions and nine fumble recoveries.
In addition, the model has taken into account that the Patriots' run defense showed much improvement over the last two weeks. In victories over Philadelphia and Dallas, New England allowed 95.0 rushing yards per game and a 4.04 yards per carry average. By contrast in the previous six games, the team coughed up 130.3 rushing yards a game and a 5.55 average.
Even so, New England, a team getting 7-2 Super Bowl odds in the latest NFL futures, isn't guaranteed to cover the Texans vs. Patriots spread on Sunday Night Football.
Houston has one of the top rushing offenses in the NFL. The Texans are averaging 136.9 rushing yards per game this season, which ranks sixth in the league. Thanks to the strong run game, they are averaging 381.6 total yards per game, which is seventh in the NFL.
In addition, Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson thrives in primetime games. In seven night games in his career, he has 18 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. Houston is 5-2 in those games.
So who wins Patriots vs. Texans on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Texans spread to jump on Sunday, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.
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December 01, 2019 at 12:02PM
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Patriots vs. Texans odds, line: Sunday Night Football picks, predictions from proven model on 93-63 roll - CBS Sports
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