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Friday, January 31, 2020

49ers vs. Chiefs odds, line: Super Bowl 2020 picks, predictions from top expert who's 12-3 on Niners games - CBS Sports

The 2020 Super Bowl features an intriguing contrast as the San Francisco 49ers take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Kickoff comes at 6:30 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. The high-powered AFC champion Chiefs (14-4) feature the NFL's fifth-ranked offense and have stepped up in the postseason by scoring 88 combined points in wins over the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans.

The NFC champion 49ers (15-3) bring the league's second-rated defense and have used it to shut down the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers on their way to a pair of blowout wins in the 2020 NFL Playoff bracket. Kansas City is a 1.5-point favorite, up a half-point from the opener, while the over-under is 54.5 in the latest 49ers vs. Chiefs odds for Super Bowl LIV. Before making your Chiefs vs. 49ers picks, be sure to see the 2020 Super Bowl predictions from Tom Fornelli.

The CBS Sports national writer has been a consistent winner for SportsLine members in all sports. He went a wallet-fattening 31-21 this season on his NFL best bets. What's more, he has demonstrated a particularly sharp eye for the trajectory of the 49ers. In fact, Fornelli is a stunning 12-3 all-time on his NFL picks involving San Francisco, and anybody who has been following him is way up.

Now, Fornelli has zeroed in on 49ers vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV from every angle and released another confident against-the-spread pick. You can head here to see it. Here are the NFL lines and trends for 49ers vs. Chiefs in the 2020 Super Bowl:

  • 49ers vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -1.5
  • 49ers vs. Chiefs over-under total: 54.5 points
  • 49ers vs. Chiefs money line: Kansas City -122, San Francisco +103
  • KC: Chiefs are 6-0-1 against the spread in their last seven games as a favorite.
  • SF: 49ers are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games as an underdog.

Why the Chiefs can cover 

Although Mahomes and the offense understandably dominate headlines when it comes to the Chiefs, their improvement on the defensive side shouldn't be taken for granted. This is particularly true of a run defense that was a major factor against the Titans in the AFC Championship Game. Late-season acquisitions like nose tackle Mike Pennel and linebacker Terrell Suggs have made a major impact in run support.

The Chiefs didn't have to bring extra defenders in order to limit the effectiveness of NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry. Instead, they were able to stop him at the line of scrimmage and repeatedly put the Titans in long down-and-distance situations, especially in the second half. The Titans were held to fewer than 100 rushing yards for the first time since Week 8, and Henry's 69 yards were his fewest since Week 10. 

Why the 49ers can cover 

Even so, Kansas City is far from assured of covering the Chiefs vs. 49ers spread in Super Bowl 54 against a San Francisco club that has been just as dominant on the other side of the ball. The 49ers average 3.2 sacks per game, tied for third in the league, and the numbers suggest they do most of their damage with a dominant defensive line. They blitz just 20.7 percent of the time, which ranks No. 29 in the NFL. This appears to be a strong formula in facing Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who averages more yards per pass play when facing a blitz. 

Still, defensive coordinator Robert Saleh appears to have a knack for when to send a blitz. The Niners have produced a sack 12.9 percent of the time when sending five or more defenders, the highest rate in the NFL. Saleh sent a six-man blitz against Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship Game and it resulted in a sack-fumble that the 49ers turned into a touchdown.

How to make Chiefs vs. 49ers picks 

Fornelli is leaning under on the total, and he's also discovered a crucial x-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. He's sharing what it is, and which side to back, only at SportsLine.

Who wins Chiefs vs. 49ers in the Super Bowl 2020? And what critical factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the 49ers vs. Chiefs spread you should be all over in Super Bowl LIV, all from the expert who's 12-3 on picks involving San Francisco, and find out. 

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January 31, 2020 at 08:51AM
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49ers vs. Chiefs odds, line: Super Bowl 2020 picks, predictions from top expert who's 12-3 on Niners games - CBS Sports
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