Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks will host Kemba Walker and the Boston Celtics on Thursday. Jayson Tatum missed Wednesday's game with knee soreness and could be held out again on Thursday. Jaylen Brown suffered a thumb sprain to his shooting hand during Wednesday's loss, and his status is also in question. Milwaukee's only injuries are to Donte DiVincenzo (finger) and Wesley Matthews (finger), both of whom are probable.
Tip-off for this one is set for 8 p.m ET from the Fiserv Forum. Sportsbooks list the Bucks as nine-point home favorites, while the over-under for total points is 223 in the latest Celtics vs. Bucks odds. Before you make any Bucks vs. Celtics picks or NBA predictions, you'll want to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned over $2,000 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 12 on a blistering 28-16 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Bucks. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Bucks vs. Celtics:
- Celtics vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -9
- Celtics vs. Bucks over-under: 223 points
- Celtics vs. Bucks money line: Milwaukee -450, Boston +360
- BOS: The Celtics have the NBA's fourth-best ATS cover rate when playing on the road this season.
- MIL: Despite an incredible 19-2 record at home this season, Milwaukee has covered the spread at a 57 percent clip when playing at home and just one of three home games in January.
Why the Bucks can cover
The model is well aware that Antetokounmpo presents a huge matchup problem for the Celtics. Without Al Horford, Boston doesn't have a capable individual defender for Antetokounmpo, and rim protection without Aron Baynes has been lacking.
As if that weren't enough, the Celtics lost to Detroit on Wednesday and enter Thursday's game on short rest and potentially short on depth. If one or both of Tatum and Brown are out, Boston is going to have a difficult time putting points on the board against Milwaukee's top-ranked defense. When you also consider that Milwaukee is 19-2 with a ridiculous +14.3 point differential at home, it is clear why Boston could struggled to cover the Celtics vs. Bucks spread.
Why the Celtics can cover
Even so, the model is also well aware that not only did Boston cover the spread against Milwaukee in their previous meeting this season, but they beat the Bucks by 11 points. Antetokounmpo was held to 22 points, which is eight below his scoring average. Could Brad Stevens' defensive scheme be enough to stifle the Greek Freak again?
Boston has played well on the road this season, boasting the NBA's fourth-best ATS cover rate (61 percent) when playing away from home. They've upped that rate to 67 percent when playing as an underdog. The x-factor for the Celtics is Gordon Hayward, who has helped them pile up the impressive road record.
Hayward has upped his shooting from 49 percent at home to 57 percent on the road, and he is red-hot coming into Thursday's game. In the first meeting with Milwaukee, Hayward contributed 21 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists, all while hitting over 50 percent of his shots. He'll be key in Boston's effort, especially if Brown and/or Tatum end up sitting.
How to make Celtics vs. Bucks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations.
So who wins Celtics vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread cashes well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bucks vs. Celtics spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
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January 16, 2020 at 07:34AM
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Celtics vs. Bucks odds, line, spread: 2020 NBA picks, Jan. 16 predictions from proven simulation on 28-16 roll - CBS Sports
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