Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks (28-16) will face a stiff test on Saturday when they travel to face the red-hot Utah Jazz (31-13) in Salt Lake City. Dwight Powell (Achilles) will miss the game for Dallas after suffering a season-ending injury earlier this week, while the Jazz will attempt to defend their home floor with what approaches a fully healthy roster. The Mavs acquired center Willie Cauley-Stein in a trade on Friday evening, but it's uncertain if he'll make his debut in this matchup.
Tip-off is at 5 p.m. ET at Vivint Smart Home Arena. Sportsbooks list the Jazz as four-point home favorites, up a point from the opening line, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 226 in the latest Mavericks vs. Jazz odds. Before you make any Jazz vs. Mavericks picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned almost $1,800 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 13 on a blistering 32-16 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Jazz. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Jazz vs. Mavericks.
- Mavericks vs. Jazz spread: Jazz -4
- Mavericks vs. Jazz over-under: 226 points
- Mavericks vs. Jazz money line: Jazz -153, Mavericks +128
- DAL: The Mavericks are 4-0-1 against the spread in the last six games
- UTAH: The Jazz are 13-2 against the spread in the last 15 contests
Why the Mavericks can cover
The model knows that the Mavericks rely heavily on their elite offense. Dallas enters the night as the league's most efficient offensive team overall, landing in the top eight of the NBA in avoiding turnovers, generating offensive rebounds, getting to the free-throw line and shooting efficiency.
The catalyst for much of that effectiveness is Doncic, with the second-year All-Star averaging 29.1 points, 9.6 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game and operating at an obscenely high level. Defensively, the Mavericks also have a couple of strengths, including an above-average propensity for keeping opponents away from the free throw line and forcing the other team into low-efficiency shot attempts.
Why the Jazz can cover
Despite Doncic's dominance, Dallas isn't a lock to cover the Mavericks vs. Jazz spread. The model also has considered that the Jazz are one of the most efficient shooting teams in the NBA, creating quality looks at all three levels of the floor. On the defensive end, Rudy Gobert is the anchor of a top-seven group in overall efficiency and, as a general rule, the Jazz attempt high-efficiency shots while limiting opponents to less optimal attempts.
Utah does have a relative weakness in turning the ball over too much offensively but, against a Dallas team that is one of the worst squads in the NBA at generating turnovers, that issue should be mitigated and the Jazz could play with more offensive freedom.
How to make Mavericks vs. Jazz picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, as Doncic projects to score just 24.5 points against Utah, falling well below his average. Bojan Bogdanovic also comes in below his scoreline baseline in projections. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations.
So who wins Mavericks vs. Jazz? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Jazz vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
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January 25, 2020 at 06:07AM
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Mavericks vs. Jazz odds, line: 2020 NBA picks, Jan. 25 predictions from projection model on 32-16 run - CBS Sports
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