The Denver Nuggets have the opportunity to ascend to the No. 2 spot in the Western Conference standings when they tip off against the Detroit Pistons on Sunday afternoon. The Nuggets will be short-handed in Sunday's contest, however, with Paul Millsap (knee), Jamal Murray (ankle), Mason Plumlee (foot) and Michael Porter Jr. (ankle) all unavailable to play. The Pistons will also be missing Blake Griffin and Luke Kennard, with those injuries ongoing.
Tip-off is at 12:30 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena. Sportsbooks list the Nuggets as 2.5-point road favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 216 in the latest Nuggets vs. Pistons odds. Before you make any Pistons vs. Nuggets picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned almost $3,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 15 on a blistering 33-16 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Nuggets vs. Pistons. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Pistons vs. Nuggets:
- Nuggets vs. Pistons spread: Nuggets -2.5
- Nuggets vs. Pistons over-under: 216 points
- Nuggets vs. Pistons money line: Nuggets -135, Pistons +115
- DEN: The Nuggets have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
- DET: The Pistons have failed to cover the spread in five straight contests.
Why the Nuggets can cover
The model knows that the Nuggets aren't playing with a full roster, but Denver is still the superior team on paper. Mike Malone's team is elite in offensive rebounding, an advantage that can be exploited against Detroit, and the Nuggets are also very good at avoiding turnovers offensively.
On the other end, the Nuggets are one of the ten best teams in the NBA at creating havoc, and the Pistons are one of the league's worst when it comes to ball security. Denver's defense matches up favorably against Detroit, particularly if Nikola Jokic and company can neutralize Andre Drummond in a way that the Nuggets have found success in similar matchups. The Nuggets enter Sunday's contest with the fifth-ranked scoring defense in the NBA, allowing opponents to score just 106.1 points per game.
Why the Pistons can cover
Even so, Denver isn't a lock to cover the Nuggets vs. Pistons spread. The model also understands that, though the Pistons have struggled in recent days, they do have a few edges to exploit. Detroit is above-average in a few offensive categories, which is critical against a solid Nuggets team on the defensive end. The Pistons are strong in shooting efficiency, free throw generation and offensive rebounding, all of which will be critical in this matchup.
The Pistons do have flaws on the defensive end, but Detroit is one of the best teams in the NBA at keeping opponents away from the charity stripe. Individually, Drummond is the key for Detroit, averaging 17.2 points and 15.7 rebounds per game, but the Pistons need Derrick Rose to continue his scoring blitz, entering the afternoon with a scoring average of 18.9 points per contest.
How to make Nuggets vs. Pistons picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with Jokic and Will Barton projected to exceed their season-long averages in scoring. For Detroit, Christian Wood is also projected to out-score his normal baseline. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations.
So who wins Pistons vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Pistons spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
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February 02, 2020 at 05:52AM
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Nuggets vs. Pistons odds, line: 2020 NBA picks, Feb. 2 predictions from projection model on 33-16 run - CBS Sports
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